Reynolds: Opening Win Totals | Establish The Run

 

DraftKings launched win totals final Friday, so we needed to present you as a lot impactful info on group totals as quickly as doable. Rosters will nonetheless change from right here, because the draft is roughly a month away, whereas a lot of notable free brokers stay out there. Beneath you’ll discover a write-up on all 32 groups, in addition to a desk exhibiting issues like energy of schedule and Tremendous Bowl odds.

 

Notes: 

All win complete figures had been taken from DraftKings Sportsbook on Friday, March 25, whereas the juice and any early line actions had been added on Sunday, March 27.

“Strength of Schedule” is ranked from hardest (1st) to best (thirty second). 

The “Draft Picks” part consists of each group’s alternatives in April’s draft throughout the first three rounds.

Italicized gamers within the “Departures” part are both retired or stay unsigned as of March 27.

 

Arizona Cardinals

Final Season’s Document: 11-6

Opening Win Complete: 9 (Over -110, Beneath -110)

Power of Schedule: 4th 

Residence Opponents: NO, TB, KC, LAC, LAR, SF, SEA 

Away Opponents: ATL, CAR, DEN, LV, LAR, SF, SEA

Unusual Opponents: vs NE, vs PHI, at MIN

Draft Picks: 1.23, 2.55, 3.87

Additions: LB Nick Vigil

Departures: RB Chase Edmonds, WR Christian Kirk, WR A.J. Inexperienced, Edge Chandler Jones, DT Jordan Phillips, LB Jordan Hicks, CB Malcolm Butler, CB Robert Alford

The Cardinals began final season 7-0, adopted by a 4-6 common season end capped off with a blowout loss to the Rams within the playoffs. Kyler Murray is a dynamic expertise that’s able to carrying a group behind MVP-caliber play, however in the end the Cardinals have misplaced important expertise this offseason they usually face the fourth-toughest schedule within the league whereas taking part in within the NFC’s hardest division.

Present Lean: Beneath (slight)

 

Atlanta Falcons

Final Season’s Document: 7-10

Opening Win Complete: 5.5 (Over -110, Beneath -110)

Power of Schedule: seventh

Residence Opponents: ARI, SF, CLE, PIT, CAR, NO, TB

Away Opponents: LAR, SEA, BAL, CIN, CAR, NO, TB

Unusual Opponents: vs CHI, vs LAC, at WAS

Draft Picks: 1.08, 2.43, 2.58, 3.74, 3.82

Additions: QB Marcus Mariota, RB Damien Williams, OT Elijah Wilkinson, Edge Lorenzo Carter, CB Casey Hayward

Departures: QB Matt Ryan, WR Calvin Ridley, WR Russell Gage, TE Hayden Hurst, Edge Dante Fowler, LB Foyesade Oluokun, LS Josh Harris

Atlanta went 6-2 in one-score video games final yr (profitable their seventh recreation by 8) behind probably the most talent-deprived rosters within the league. New sign caller Marcus Mariota will function the bridge between not too long ago traded franchise icon Matt Ryan and Atlanta’s eventual future at quarterback. No matter when that new period begins, the Falcons are rebuilding with the seventh-most troublesome schedule within the league.

Present Lean: Beneath

 

Baltimore Ravens

Final Season’s Document: 8-9

Opening Win Complete: 9.5 (Over -125, Beneath +105)

Power of Schedule: twenty fifth 

Residence Opponents: BUF, MIA, ATL, CAR, CIN, CLE, PIT

Away Opponents: NE, NYJ, NO, TB, CIN, CLE, PIT

Unusual Opponents: vs DEN, at JAX, at NYG

Draft Picks: 1.14, 2.45, 3.76, 3.100

Additions: OT Morgan Moses, DT Michael Pierce, S Marcus Williams

Departures: WR Sammy Watkins, G/C Bradley Bozeman, Edge Justin Houston, DT Calais Campbell, DT Brandon Williams, CB Anthony Averett, CB Tavon Younger

The Ravens had been completely ravaged by accidents final season, however quarterback Lamar Jackson is just a few years faraway from an MVP season and Baltimore has been probably the most constant groups within the NFL because the flip of the century. The Ravens’ unusual opponents within the Jaguars and Giants give them a substantial edge over final yr’s AFC North-winning Bengals, who draw the Titans and Cowboys in these spots. On condition that schedule benefit over the Bengals, together with the likelihood that Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson misses just a few video games by way of suspension, I’ll be preserving my eyes peeled for a worth play on the Ravens profitable the AFC North over the approaching weeks.

Present Lean: Over

 

Buffalo Payments

Final Season’s Document: 11-6

Opening Win Complete: 11.5 (Over -135, Beneath +115)

Power of Schedule: fifteenth 

Residence Opponents: CLE, PIT, GB, MIN, MIA, NE, NYJ

Away Opponents: BAL, CIN, CHI, DET, MIA, NE, NYJ

Unusual Opponents: vs TEN, at KC, at LAR

Draft Picks: 1.25, 2.57, 3.89

Additions: QB Case Keenum, RB Duke Johnson, WR Jamison Crowder, TE O.J. Howard, G Roger Saffold, C Greg Mancz, Edge Von Miller, Edge Shaq Lawson, DT Tim Settle, DT Jordan Phillips

Departures: QB Mitch Trubisky, RB Matt Breida, WR Cole Beasley, WR Emmanuel Sanders, OT Daryl Williams, G Jon Feliciano, Edge Jerry Hughes, Edge Mario Addison, DT Harrison Phillips, DT Vernon Butler, CB Levi Wallace

The Payments have a extremely succesful protection, however Buffalo has turn out to be The Josh Allen Present lately. Whereas the Payments are in a powerful place to win the AFC East and subsequently compete for the highest spot within the convention, a lot of groups with dynamic quarterbacks have closed the expertise hole on Buffalo this offseason.

Present Lean: Beneath (slight)

 

Carolina Panthers

Final Season’s Document: 5-12

Opening Win Complete: 6 (Over -110, Beneath -110)

Power of Schedule: fifteenth

Residence Opponents: ARI, SF, CLE, PIT, ATL, NO, TB

Away Opponents: LAR, SEA, BAL, CIN, ATL, NO, TB

Unusual Opponents: vs DET, vs DEN, at NYG

Draft Picks: 1.06

Additions: RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Rashard Higgins, G Austin Corbett, G/ C Bradley Bozeman, DT Matt Ioannidis, LB Damien Wilson, LB Cory Littleton, S Xavier Woods, P Johnny Hekker

Departures: QB Cam Newton, C Matt Paradis, Edge Haason Reddick, CB Stephon Gilmore, CB A.J. Bouye

Sam Darnold and the Panthers offense was higher than anticipated via the primary 4 video games final yr, after which they fell off a cliff for the remainder of the season. Carolina has some gifted younger gamers on either side of the ball, and yow will discover six winnable video games on the schedule with out coloring too far outdoors the traces. However in the end this case looks as if one the place the Panthers enter subsequent season on the lookout for Matt Rhule’s substitute.

Present Lean: Beneath

 

Chicago Bears

Final Season’s Document: 6-11

Opening Win Complete: 7.5 (Moved to 7, Over -110, Beneath -110)

Power of Schedule: twenty ninth

Residence Opponents: PHI, WAS, BUF, MIA, DET, GB, MIN

Away Opponents: DAL, NYG, NE, NYJ, DET, GB, MIN

Unusual Opponents: vs SF, vs HOU, at ATL

Draft Picks: 2.39, 2.48, 3.71

Additions: FB Khari Blasingame, WR Byron Pringle, WR Equanimeous St. Brown, G Lucas Patrick, Edge Al-Quadin Muhammad, DT Justin Jones

Departures: QB Andy Dalton, RB Damien Williams, WR Allen Robinson, WR Jakeem Grant, TE Jimmy Graham, G/C James Daniels, OT Elijah Wilkinson, OL Germain Ifedi, Edge Khalil Mack, DT Akiem Hicks, DT Eddie Goldman, DT Bilal Nichols, S Deon Bush, P Pat O’Donnell

As Silva not too long ago talked about, you could possibly argue that the Bears have the worst roster in soccer. The Bears’ offensive and defensive traces particularly will look a lot totally different than they’ve lately this opening day. That’s the main purpose Chicago’s win complete is the one one which shifted over the weekend. The bull case for the Bears is that second-year quarterback Justin Fields breaks out and carries Chicago to higher than anticipated success in opposition to the fourth-easiest schedule.

Present Lean: Beneath

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Final Season’s Document: 10-7

Opening Win Complete: 10 (Over +110, Beneath -130)

Power of Schedule: seventh 

Residence Opponents: BUF, MIA, ATL, CAR, BAL, CLE, PIT

Away Opponents: NE, NYJ, NO, TB, BAL, CLE, PIT

Unusual Opponents: vs KC, at TEN, at DAL

Draft Picks: 1.31, 2.63, 3.95

Additions: TE Hayden Hurst, OT La’el Collins, G Alex Cappa, G/ C Ted Karras

Departures: TE C.J. Uzomah, OT Riley Reiff, DT Larry Ogunjobi

The Bengals’ main missions this offseason had been to enhance their offensive line whereas retaining security Jessie Bates. They achieved each of these targets. Joe Burrow has already confirmed that he’s the actual deal to the purpose we will moderately anticipate him and his Bengals to be an element within the AFC for years to return. The bear case on Cincinnati is that Tremendous Bowl dropping groups usually stumble the next yr. The Bengals additionally face the seventh-most troublesome schedule, whereas their division rivals all draw extra manageable unusual opponents.

Present Lean: Push

 

Cleveland Browns

Final Season’s Document: 8-9

Opening Win Complete: Off

Power of Schedule: twenty eighth

Residence Opponents: NE, NYJ, NO, TB, BAL, CIN, PIT

Away Opponents: BUF, MIA, ATL, CAR, BAL, CIN, PIT

Unusual Opponents: vs LAC, at HOU, at WAS

Draft Picks: 2.44, 3.78, 3.99

Additions: QB Deshaun Watson, QB Jacoby Brissett, WR Amari Cooper, WR Jakeem Grant, Edge Chase Winovich, DT Taven Bryan

Departures: QB Case Keenum, WR Jarvis Landry, WR Rashard Higgins, TE Austin Hooper, C J.C. Tretter, Edge Jadeveon Clowney, DT Malik Jackson, S Ronnie Harrison

If newly-acquired quarterback Deshaun Watson performs all the 2022 season, the Browns might open with a win complete of 10 or extra video games whereas being reliable title contenders. Cleveland’s present division and Tremendous Bowl odds on DraftKings replicate these stances. If Watson is suspended for roughly half the yr, Cleveland possible opens within the 7-to-8 win complete vary.

Present Lean: The league tends to droop its star gamers for shorter durations than anticipated in conditions like this.

 

Dallas Cowboys

Final Season’s Document: 12-5

Opening Win Complete: 10.5 (Over -105, Beneath -115)

Power of Schedule: twenty first

Residence Opponents: CHI, DET, HOU, IND, NYG, PHI, WAS

Away Opponents: GB, MIN, JAX, TEN, NYG, PHI, WAS

Unusual Opponents: vs TB, vs CIN, at LAR

Draft Picks: 1.24, 2.56, 3.88

Additions: WR James Washington, TE Jeremy Sprinkle, Edge Dante Fowler

Departures: WR Amari Cooper, WR Cedrick Wilson, TE Blake Jarwin, OT La’el Collins, G Connor Williams, Edge Randy Gregory, LB Keanu Neal

Up to now within the offseason, Dallas has bled expertise in just a few areas, however their offensive line particularly is now a Tyron Smith or Zack Martin harm away from turning into a possible legal responsibility. Outdoors of their troublesome unusual opponents, Dallas’ divisional schedule together with their matchups in opposition to the NFC North and AFC South are very manageable. If Dallas acquires former Bears DT Akiem Hicks as rumored, that may change my present lean from a slight beneath to a slight over. Equally, if Dallas takes an offensive lineman within the first two rounds, I’ll be much less involved about their roster drop-offs.

Present lean: Beneath

 

Denver Broncos

Final Season’s Document: 7-10

Opening Win Complete: 10 (Over -125, Beneath +105)

Power of Schedule: fifteenth

Residence Opponents: HOU, IND, ARI, SF, KC, LV, LAC

Away Opponents: JAX, TEN, LAR, SEA, KC, LV, LAC

Unusual Opponents: vs NYJ, at BAL, at CAR

Draft Picks: 2.64, 3.75, 3.96

Additions: QB Russell Wilson, QB Josh Johnson, Edge Randy Gregory, DT D.J. Jones, LB Alex Singleton

Departures: QB Teddy Bridgewater, QB Drew Lock, RB Melvin Gordon, TE Noah Fant, OT Bobby Massie, Edge Shelby Harris, CB Kyle Fuller, CB Bryce Callahan

The AFC West is the hardest division in soccer, however that was the case final yr from Denver’s perspective, as they went 1-5 throughout the division with common Teddy Bridgewater beneath middle. I’m comfy in treating Russell Wilson as if he’s value no less than three extra wins than Teddy, and people unusual video games in opposition to the Jets and Panthers are a bonus.

Present Lean: Over (Slight)

 

Detroit Lions

Final Season’s Document: 3-11-1

Opening Win Complete: 6 (Over -115, Beneath -105)

Power of Schedule: twenty fourth

Residence Opponents: PHI, WAS, BUF, MIA, CHI, GB, MIN

Away Opponents: DAL, NYG, NE, NYJ, CHI, GB, MIN

Unusual Opponents: vs SEA, vs JAX, at CAR

Draft Picks: 1.02, 1.32, 2.34, 3.66, 3.97

Additions: WR D.J. Chark, CB Mike Hughes

Departures: Edge Trey Flowers, LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin

The Lions went 2-5-1 in one-score video games final season whereas taking part in scrappy, situationally aggressive soccer all year long. It will make sense if Detroit drafts a brand new future at quarterback with the second general decide, which makes them a extra unstable win complete consideration at this very early juncture. Regardless, I can get to 6 wins for the Lions, however I’d have to begin actually coloring outdoors the traces to get past that.

Present Lean: Beneath (slight)

 

Inexperienced Bay Packers

Final Season’s Document: 13-4

Opening Win Complete: 11 (Over -125, Beneath +105)

Power of Schedule: 18th

Residence Opponents: DAL, NYG, NE, NYJ, CHI, DET, MIN

Away Opponents: PHI, WAS, BUF, MIA, CHI, DET, MIN

Unusual Opponents: vs LAR, vs TEN, at TB

Draft Picks: 1.22, 1.28, 2.53, 2.59, 3.92

Additions: DT Jarran Reed, P Pat O’Donnell 

Departures: WR Davante Adams, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR Equanimeous St. Brown, G Lucas Patrick, Edge Za’Darius Smith, CB Kevin King, P J.Okay. Scott

Adams is a big loss, however the greater situation is that he was the one difference-making go catcher on the roster. I consider in Aaron Rodgers’ capacity to make coaches and go catchers piles of cash greater than anybody, however it’s sort of an odd stage in Rodgers’ profession to begin attempting to get him a first-round expertise or two at large receiver. With that stated, other than Inexperienced Bay’s unusual opponents, the Packers’ schedule is manageable sufficient for Rodgers and this protection to succeed in 11 wins.

Present Lean: Over (slight)

 

Houston Texans

Final Season’s Document: 4-13

Opening Win Complete: 4.5 (Over -105, Beneath -115)

Power of Schedule: sixth 

Residence Opponents: KC, LAC, PHI, WAS, IND, JAX, TEN

Away Opponents: DEN, LV, DAL, NYG, IND, JAX, TEN

Unusual Opponents: vs CLE, at MIA, at CHI

Draft Picks: 1.03, 1.13, 2.37, 3.68, 3.80

Additions: QB Kyle Allen, RB Dare Ogunbowale, FB Andy Janovich, OT Cedric Ogbuehi, G A.J. Cann, LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, LB Blake Cashman

Departures: QB Deshaun Watson, QB Tyrod Taylor, OT Geron Christian, Edge Jacob Martin, CB Terrance Mitchell, S Justin Reid, S A.J. Moore

I’m not precisely positive what David Culley was anticipated to do final yr, however Lovie Smith’s final head teaching stint within the NFL got here in Tampa Bay from 2014-2015, the place the Buccaneers mixed for an 8-24 file over that span. I’m not anticipating a wildly totally different consequence given the restrictions of this Texans roster.

Present Lean: Beneath

 

Indianapolis Colts 

Final Season’s Document: 9-8

Opening Win Complete: 9.5 (Over -110, Beneath -110)

Power of Schedule: thirtieth

Residence Opponents: KC, LAC, PHI, WAS, HOU, JAX, TEN

Away Opponents: DEN, LV, DAL, NYG, HOU, JAX, TEN

Unusual Opponents: vs PIT, at NE, at MIN

Draft Picks: 2.42, 3.73

Additions: QB Matt Ryan, Edge Yannick Ngakoue, CB Brandon Facyson

Departures: QB Carson Wentz, RB Jordan Wilkins, T.Y. Hilton, WR Zach Pascal, TE Jack Doyle, G Mark Glowinski, OT Eric Fisher, Edge Al-Quadin Muhammad, CB Rock Ya-Sin, CB Xavier Rhodes, S George Odum

Outdoors of their dates with the loaded AFC West, the Colts have a really manageable schedule and Matt Ryan is an improve over Carson Wentz. There aren’t any simple wins among the many Colts’ unusual opponents, however their trio continues to be extra manageable than the Titans’. Indianapolis has the third-easiest schedule general within the league, which is essentially pushed by having two video games every in opposition to the Jaguars and Texans (which is a high-quality instance of why I care extra about what number of related opponents groups play).

Present Lean: Over (slight)

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Final Season’s Document: 3-14

Opening Win Complete: 6.5 (Over +100, Beneath -120)

Power of Schedule: twenty seventh

Residence Opponents: DEN, LV, DAL, NYG, HOU, IND, TEN

Away Opponents: KC, LAC, PHI, WAS, HOU, IND, TEN

Unusual Opponents: vs BAL, at NYJ, at DET

Draft Picks: 1.01, 2.33, 3.65, 3.70

Additions: WR Christian Kirk, WR Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram, G Brandon Scherff, DT Foley Fatukasi, LB Foyesade Oluokun, CB Darious Williams

Departures: RB Dare Ogunbowale, WR D.J. Chark, TE Jacob Hollister, G Andrew Norwell, G A.J. Cann, DT Taven Bryan, LB Myles Jack, LB Damien Wilson

Any bull case for the Jaguars begins with Trevor Lawrence taking a big leap behind a considerably improved roster, a way more steady coach, and a manageable schedule. Long run, a few of these contracts are the sorts of overpays that in the end result in normal managers getting fired, however for now, Lawrence is in a greater scenario than he was all through his rookie marketing campaign.

Present Lean: Over (slight)

 

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs

Final Season’s Document: 12-5

Opening Win Complete: 11 (Over +120, Beneath -140)

Power of Schedule: 1st

Residence Opponents: JAX, TEN, LAR, SEA, DEN, LV, LAC

Away Opponents: HOU, IND, ARZ, SF, DEN, LV, LAC

Unusual Opponents: vs BUF, at CIN, at TB

Draft Picks: 1.29, 1.30, 2.50, 2.62, 3.94, 3.103

Additions: RB Ronald Jones, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR Corey Coleman, OT Geron Christian, S Justin Reid, S Deon Bush

Departures: RB Darrel Williams, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Byron Pringle, WR Demarcus Robinson, Edge Melvin Ingram, DT Jarran Reed, CB Charvarius Ward, CB Mike Hughes, S Tyrann Mathieu

Much like the Packers, the Chiefs’ roster has been getting just a little worse yearly and the lack of Tyreek Hill will change how this offense operates. Throw within the lack of a number of members of this secondary and that the Chiefs struggled greater than their closing file would point out final yr, and Kansas Metropolis may very well be heading in direction of a little bit of a slide in a now-loaded AFC West. On prime of that, the Chiefs have the toughest schedule within the league this yr and their brutal trio of unusual matchups is an edge for all three of their AFC West rivals.

Long run, I perceive the necessity for Kansas Metropolis to get cheaper and youthful, and in the end this group goes so far as Patrick Mahomes takes them. However Kansas Metropolis’s determination to pay Aaron Rodgers‘ version of Mecole Hardman (MVS) makes me question the Chiefs’ plan for the primary time in a very long time.

Present Lean: Beneath, however the juice is shocking and makes it an actual determination.

 

Las Vegas Raiders

Final Season’s Document: 10-7

Opening Win Complete: 8 (Over -125, Beneath +105)

Power of Schedule: third 

Residence Opponents: HOU, IND, ARI, SF, DEN, KC, LAC

Away Opponents: JAX, TEN, LAR, SEA, DEN, KC, LAC

Unusual Opponents: vs NE, at PIT, at NO

Draft Picks: 3.86

Additions: RB Brandon Bolden, RB Ameer Abdullah, FB Jacob Johnson, WR Davante Adams, WR Demarcus Robinson, TE Jacob Hollister, Edge Chandler Jones, DT Bilal Nichols, DT Vernon Butler, CB Rock Ya-Sin, CB Anthony Averett

Departures: QB Marcus Mariota, WR Zay Jones, Edge Yannick Ngakoue, DT Quinton Jefferson, LB Cory Littleton, CB Casey Hayward, CB Brandon Facyson

There are just a few divisions that I believe the Raiders might win, and whenever you have a look at these transactions, it’s fairly clear that Las Vegas obtained higher this offseason. The Raiders might realistically have a high-end offense and their go protection is sneaky fascinating. The impediment with being bullish on the Raiders is their energy of schedule (a hurdle they overcame final yr) and the fact that no less than one group is unlikely to get into the playoffs within the AFC West.

Present Lean: Over

 

Los Angeles Chargers

Final Season’s Document: 9-8

Opening Win Complete: 10 (Over -120, Beneath +100)

Power of Schedule: seventh

Residence Opponents: JAX, TEN, LAR, SEA, DEN, KC, LV

Away Opponents: HOU, IND, ARI, SF, DEN, KC, LV

Unusual Opponents: vs MIA, at CLE, at ATL

Draft Picks: 1.17, 3.79

Additions: QB Chase Daniel, TE Gerald Everett, Edge Khalil Mack, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, DT Austin Johnson, CB J.C. Jackson, LS Josh Harris, P J.Okay. Scott

Departures: RB Justin Jackson, TE Jared Cook dinner, OT Bryan Bulaga, Edge Uchenna Nwosu, DT Linval Joseph, DT Justin Jones, CB Chris Harris

The Chargers have saved most of their offensive roster intact for MVP candidate Justin Herbert whereas including a number of important items to final yr’s massively underachieving protection. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack appears like the perfect edge rush duo within the league, though I’ve some reservation on J.C. Jackson, as Patriots that Invoice Belichick permits to stroll away normally take a step or two again once they go away the nest. That’s extra of a possible addition than buying an elite go rusher that hates Corridor of Fame quarterbacks like Mack for me. That stated, outdoors of harm, there are extra paths to the Chargers beating their win complete than not this yr.

Present Lean: Over

 

Los Angeles Rams

Final Season’s Document: 12-5

Opening Win Complete: 10.5 (Over -115, Beneath -105)

Power of Schedule: 2nd

Residence Opponents: ATL, CAR, DEN, LV, ARI, SF, SEA

Away Opponents: NO, TB, KC, LAC, ARI, SF, SEA

Unusual Opponents: vs DAL, vs BUF, at GB

Draft Picks: 3.104

Additions: WR Allen Robinson

Departures: RB Sony Michel, WR Robert Woods, WR Odell Beckham, OT Andrew Whitworth, G Austin Corbett, Edge Von Miller, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, CB Darious Williams, P Johnny Hekker

Outdoors of accidents and schedule problem, Joe Noteboom’s capacity to take over for Andrew Whitworth at sort out is the most important unknown for the Rams at this juncture. In any other case, the defending champs are bringing again the core of their championship roster.

Present Lean: Over (slight)

 

Miami Dolphins

Final Season’s Document: 9-8

Opening Win Complete: 8.5 (Over -125, Beneath +105)

Power of Schedule: 18th

Residence Opponents: CLE, PIT, GB, MIN, BUF, NE, NYJ

Away Opponents: BAL, CIN, CHI, DET, BUF, NE, NYJ

Unusual Opponents: vs HOU, at LAC, at SF

Draft Picks: 3.102

Additions: QB Teddy Bridgewater, RB Chase Edmonds, RB Raheem Mostert, FB Alec Ingold, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Cedrick Wilson, OT Terron Armstead, G Connor Williams, CB Keion Crossen

Departures: QB Jacoby Brissett, WR Will Fuller, C Greg Mancz

What Mike McDaniels’ does with this offense is likely to be the factor I’m wanting ahead to most heading into this season. If he does what I believe he’s going to do in a macro sense, and Miami’s protection continues its stage of effectiveness in Brian Flores‘ absence, Miami is an fascinating consideration to win the AFC East at +400 odds. Finally, you could possibly argue that no group has improved greater than Miami this offseason, and if Tua Tagovailoa takes a leap, this may very well be a really fascinating yr for Dolphins followers.

Present Lean: Over

 

Minnesota Vikings

Final Season’s Document: 8-9

Opening Win Complete: 9 (Over -110, Beneath -110)

Power of Schedule: twenty first

Residence Opponents: DAL, NYG, NE, NYJ, CHI, DET, GB

Away Opponents: PHI, WAS, BUF, MIA, CHI, DET, GB

Unusual Opponents: vs ARI, vs IND, at NO

Draft Picks: 1.12, 2.46, 3.77

Additions: Edge Za’Darius Smith, DT Harrison Phillips, LB Jordan Hicks

Departures: TE Tyler Conklin, C Mason Cole, DT Michael Pierce, DT Sheldon Richardson, LB Anthony Barr, LB Nick Vigil, CB Patrick Peterson, S Xavier Woods

Minnesota went 4-7 in one-score video games final season with a late-season journey to Inexperienced Bay (with out Kirk Cousins) serving as the one time the Vikings misplaced by greater than eight factors all yr. The offense must be good, regardless of dashes of maddening inconsistency up to now. On protection, Minnesota’s entrance may very well be improved, particularly if Danielle Hunter can keep wholesome, whereas the Vikings are nicely positioned so as to add some important secondary assist in the draft in the event that they so select.

Present Lean: Over (slight)

 

New England Patriots

Final Season’s Document: 10-7

Opening Win Complete: 8.5 (Over -125, Beneath +105)

Power of Schedule: thirteenth

Residence Opponents: BAL, CIN, CHI, DET, BUF, MIA, NYJ

Away Opponents: CLE, PIT, GB, MIN, BUF, MIA, NYJ

Unusual Opponents: vs IND, at LV, at ARI

Draft Picks: 1.21, 2.54, 3.85

Additions: RB Ty Montgomery, CB Terrance Mitchell, CB Malcolm Butler

Departures: RB Brandon Bolden, G Shaq Mason, G/ C Ted Karras, Edge Chase Winovich, LB Dont’a Hightower, LB Kyle Van Noy, CB J.C. Jackson

The offseason isn’t over, however up to now the Patriots’ roster is noticeably thinner than it was on opening day final yr. For the reason that AFC is crammed with groups which have already gotten higher, that’s genuinely regarding. The bull case for New England is constructed on two very reasonable potentialities: Mac Jones improves on a really stable rookie marketing campaign and that Invoice Belichick continues to offer strategic edges in opposition to just about each opponent.

Present Lean: Beneath

 

New Orleans Saints

Final Season’s Document: 9-8

Opening Win Complete: 7.5 (Over -125, Beneath +105)

Power of Schedule: twentieth

Residence Opponents: LAR, SEA, BAL, CIN, ATL, CAR, TB

Away Opponents: ARI, SF, CLE, PIT, ATL, CAR, TB

Unusual Opponents: vs MIN, vs LV, at PHI

Draft Picks: 1.18, 2.49, 3.98, 3.101

Additions: S Marcus Maye

Departures: OT Terron Armstead, LB Kwon Alexander, CB P.J. Williams, S Marcus Williams

The NFC West and AFC North are powerful attracts for everybody within the NFC South, which is a main purpose that I’m veering in direction of unders on everybody within the division. Within the case of the Saints, the departure of Sean Payton whereas dropping stud sort out Terron Armstead paired with the Alvin Kamara (off-field) and Michael Thomas (harm) uncertainties appears like a scenario that has a whole lot of alternative ways to go unsuitable or in any other case underwhelm.

Present Lean: Beneath

 

New York Giants

Final Season’s Document: 4-13

Opening Win Complete: 7.5 (Over +120, Beneath -145)

Power of Schedule: thirty first

Residence Opponents: CHI, DET, HOU, IND, DAL, PHI, WAS

Away Opponents: GB, MIN, JAX, TEN, DAL, PHI, WAS

Unusual Opponents: vs CAR, vs BAL, at SEA

Draft Picks: 1.05, 1.07, 2.36, 3.67, 3.81

Additions: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Matt Breida, WR Robert Foster, TE Ricky Seals-Jones, G Mark Glowinski, G Jon Feliciano

Departures: RB Devontae Booker, TE Evan Engram, TE Kyle Rudolph, OT Nate Solder, G Will Hernandez, C Billy Value, Edge Lorenzo Carter, DT Austin Johnson, CB Keion Crossen, S Logan Ryan, S Jabrill Peppers

The Giants appear to have an actual plan for the primary time in over half a decade, however in the end it is a below-average roster that the brand new regime seems to be hitting the reset button on. The bull case for the Giants is that Daniel Jones massively improves in Brian Daboll’s offense, whereas going through one of many best schedules within the league.

Present Lean: Beneath

 

New York Jets

Final Season’s Document: 4-13

Opening Win Complete: 5 (Over -130, Beneath +110)

Power of Schedule: 4th

Residence Opponents: BAL, CIN, CHI, DET, BUF, MIA, NE

Away Opponents: CLE, PIT, GB, MIN, BUF, MIA, NE

Unusual Opponents: vs JAX, at DEN, at SEA

Draft Picks: 1.04, 1.10, 2.35, 2.38, 3.69

Additions: TE C.J. Uzomah, TE Tyler Conklin, G Laken Tomlinson, Edge Jacob Martin, CB D.J. Reed, S Jordan Whitehead

Departures: WR Jamison Crowder, OT Morgan Moses, Edge Shaq Lawson, DT Foley Fatukasi, LB Blake Cashman, S Marcus Maye

I like what the Jets have performed to date this offseason, they’ve 4 top-50 picks on this yr’s draft, they usually spent the final month of final season giving Miami, Tampa Bay, and Buffalo very aggressive video games (the Payments recreation was shut till late). Second-year quarterback Zach Wilson struggled and missed a number of video games throughout his rookie marketing campaign, however I’m not prepared to write down him off simply but, because the Jets’ greatest offensive gamers all missed important time final season. There are a variety of paths for this case to enhance, however in the end Wilson should be much more constant for the Jets to hold in a really aggressive AFC.

Present Lean: Over

 

Philadelphia Eagles

Final Season’s Document: 9-8

Opening Win Complete: 8.5 (Over +100, Beneath -120)

Power of Schedule: thirty first

Residence Opponents: GB, MIN, JAX, TEN, DAL, NYG, WAS

Away Opponents: CHI, DET, HOU, IND, DAL, NYG, WAS

Unusual Opponents: vs NO, vs PIT, at ARI

Draft Picks: 1.15, 1.16, 1.19, 2.51, 3.83

Additions: WR Zach Pascal, Edge/LB Haason Reddick

Departures: LB Alex Singleton, CB Steven Nelson

Philadelphia went 0-6 (plus a loss to the Chargers) in opposition to playoff groups final yr, however they’re tied with the Giants for the simplest schedule this season whereas going through the fewest high quality (7) and elite groups (3). The Eagles’ roster stays extra intact than every other NFC playoff group from final season, they usually have three top-20 picks on this April’s draft. If you happen to’re down on Dallas, the Eagles are an fascinating consideration to win the NFC East at +350.

Present Lean: Over

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Final Season’s Document: 9-7-1

Opening Win Complete: 7.5 (Over -110, Beneath -110)

Power of Schedule: seventh

Residence Opponents: NE, NYJ, NO, TB, BAL, CIN, CLE

Away Opponents: BUF, MIA, ATL, CAR, BAL, CIN, CLE

Unusual Opponents: vs LV, at IND, at PHI

Draft Picks: 1.20, 2.52, 3.84

Additions: QB Mitch Trubisky, G/C James Daniels, C Mason Cole, LB Myles Jack, CB Levi Wallace

Departures: QB Ben Roethlisberger, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR James Washington, WR Ray-Ray McCloud, LB Joe Schobert, CB Joe Haden, S Terrell Edmunds

The Steelers have made a few of my favourite worth signings this offseason, they usually’ve been a mannequin of consistency all through the Mike Tomlin period. The draw back for Pittsburgh is that the AFC is now crammed with dynamic quarterbacks they usually merely should not have one.

Present Lean: Beneath (slight)

 

San Francisco 49ers

Final Season’s Document: 10-7

Opening Win Complete: 10 (Over -115, Beneath -105)

Power of Schedule: 14th

Residence Opponents: NO, TB, KC, LAC, ARI, LAR, SEA

Away Opponents: ATL, CAR, DEN, LV, ARI, LAR, SEA

Unusual Opponents: vs WAS, vs MIA, at CHI

Draft Picks: 2.61, 3.93, 3.105

Additions: WR Ray-Ray McCloud, CB Charvarius Ward, S George Odum

Departures: RB Raheem Mostert, G Laken Tomlinson, Edge Arden Key, DT D.J. Jones, S Jaquiski Tartt

San Francisco is three years faraway from a Tremendous Bowl look they usually misplaced a good recreation within the NFC Championship final yr. The 49ers misplaced some function gamers this offseason whereas probably getting a big increase at nook in Ward; so they could have really improved upon their already high-end roster, which is one thing that the opposite main contenders within the NFC can’t say. The query proper now’s, will Trey Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo begin on opening day? We all know what we’ll get with Jimmy, the place Lance is extra of an unknown with a better ceiling.

Present Lean: Over

 

Seattle Seahawks

Final Season’s Document: 7-10

Opening Win Complete: 6.5 (Over +100, Beneath -120)

Power of Schedule: seventh

Residence Opponents: ATL, CAR, DEN, LV, ARI, LAR, SF

Away Opponents: NO, TB, KC, LAC, ARI, LAR, SF

Unusual Opponents: vs NYG, vs NYJ, at DET

Draft Picks: 1.09, 2.40, 2.41, 3.72

Additions: QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, Edge Uchenna Nwosu, Edge Shelby Harris, DT Quinton Jefferson, 

Departures: QB Russell Wilson, QB Geno Smith, TE Gerald Everett, OT Duane Brown, OT Brandon Shell, OT Jamarco Jones, Edge Carlos Dunlap, LB Bobby Wagner, CB D.J. Reed

The bull case for Seattle begins with winnable house video games in opposition to the Falcons, Panthers, Jets, and Giants with a street journey to Detroit. Even when Seattle goes 5-0 in these matchups, they should knock off the Saints in New Orleans, Russell Wilson’s Broncos, or win twice in opposition to playoff groups to succeed in seven wins. Even when Seattle will get Baker Mayfield, I’m comfy betting in opposition to these circumstances, as we already noticed final season what this group appears to be like like with out Russ.

Present lean: Beneath

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Final Season’s Document: 13-4

Opening Win Complete: 11.5 (Over -110, Beneath -110)

Power of Schedule: twenty first

Residence Opponents: LAR, SEA, BAL, CIN, ATL, CAR, NO

Away Opponents: ARI, SF, CLE, PIT, ATL, CAR, NO

Unusual Opponents: vs GB, vs KC, at DAL

Draft Picks: 1.27, 2.60, 3.91

Additions: WR Russell Gage, G Shaq Mason, S Logan Ryan

Departures: RB Ronald Jones, TE Rob Gronkowski, TE O.J. Howard, G Ali Marpet, G Alex Cappa, Edge Jason-Pierre Paul, DT Ndamukong Suh, S Jordan Whitehead

Tampa Bay introduced again the overwhelming majority of their championship group final offseason, however this yr they’ve bled some expertise. The bull case for the Bucs is that Tom Brady has returned from his temporary retirement and this group lacks any high-end competitors throughout the division. The bear case operates beneath the premise that Tampa is prone to go 5-1 or higher throughout the division, however that they may very moderately go 6-5 in opposition to the NFC West, AFC North, and their trio of high-end unusual opponents.

Present Lean: Beneath (slight)

 

Tennessee Titans

Final Season’s Document: 12-5

Opening Win Complete: 9.5 (Over -110, Beneath -110)

Power of Schedule: twelfth

Residence Opponents: DEN, LV, DAL, NYG, HOU, IND, JAX

Away Opponents: KC, LAC, PHI, WAS, HOU, IND, JAX

Unusual Opponents: vs CIN, at BUF, at GB

Draft Picks: 1.26, 3.90

Additions: RB Jordan Wilkins, WR Robert Woods, TE Austin Hooper, OT Jamarco Jones, CB Buster Skrine, S A.J. Moore

Departures: RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Julio Jones, TE Anthony Firkser, OT Cedric Ogbuehi, G Roger Saffold

The Titans stay an uncomfortable, bodily matchup in an AFC affected by dynamic quarterbacks. That’s been their key to success through the Mike Vrabel period. The Titans’ largest drawback versus their AFC South rivals is their trio of unusual opponents. Their largest impediment when it comes to profitable the AFC is that in case you had been to rank the perfect quarterbacks within the convention, probably the most beneficiant rating for Ryan Tannehill is ninth. Tennessee made it abundantly clear on the finish of their Divisional Spherical loss to Cincinnati that they don’t have a lot religion in Tannehill when it counts.

Present Lean: Beneath (slight)

 

Washington Commanders

Final Season’s Document: 7-10

Opening Win Complete: 7.5 (Over +100, Beneath -120)

Power of Schedule: twenty fifth

Residence Opponents: GB, MIN, JAX, TEN, DAL, NYG, PHI

Away Opponents: CHI, DET, HOU, IND, DAL, NYG, PHI

Unusual Opponents: vs ATL, vs CLE, at SF

Draft Picks: 1.11, 2.47

Additions: QB Carson Wentz, G Andrew Norwell

Departures: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, TE Ricky Seals-Jones, TE Jeremy Sprinkle, G Brandon Scherff, G Ereck Flowers, DT Matt Ioannidis, DT Tim Settle, S Landon Collins

Realistically talking, Carson Wentz possible gives Washington with higher, extra constant quarterback play than they’ve had in both of the final two years. The bull case for Washington is Wentz gives them with improved quarterback play, their younger talent group continues to get higher, and their gifted entrance 4 will get Chase Younger again with the seventh-easiest schedule in a winnable NFC East. The bear case is that this group has gained seven video games in every of the final two years, as a result of that’s what they’re able to till they get high-end quarterback play.

Present Lean: Beneath (slight)

 

 

Workforce
Win Complete
Win the Division
Win the Tremendous Bowl
Power of Schedule
High quality Opponents
Elite Opponents
ARI
9
+300
+2200
4th (T)
12
8
ATL
5.5
+1000
+10000
seventh (T)
9
6
BAL
9.5
+225
+2200
twenty fifth (T)
9
5
BUF
11.5
-190
+650
fifteenth (T)
12
4
CAR
6
+1100
+10000
fifteenth (T)
9
6
CHI
7.5
+750
+10000
twenty ninth
10
4
CIN
10
+200
+2000
seventh (T)
11
4
CLE

9 (Off)

+175
+1700
twenty eighth
9
5

DAL
10.5
-115
+1600
twenty first (T)
9
4
DEN
10
+250
+1500
fifteenth (T)
12
6
DET
6
+1200
+15000
twenty fourth
9
4
GB
11
-175
+900
18th (T)
10
4
HOU
4.5
+2200
+20000
sixth
12
4
IND
9.5
+110
+2000
thirtieth
10
4
JAX
6.5
+650
+10000
twenty seventh
11
4
KC
11
+160
+900
1st
14
9
LV
8
+600
+4000
third
12
8
LAC
10
+250
+1600
seventh (T)
13
6
LAR
10.5
+160
+1100
2nd
12
9
MIA
8.5
+400
+3000
18th (T)
11
6
MIN
9
+275
+4000
twenty first (T)
9
4
NE
8.5
+400
+4000
thirteenth
12
4
NO
7.5
+450
+5000
twentieth
11
5
NYG
7.5
+650
+10000
thirty first (T)
9
3
NYJ
5
+2500
+20000
4th (T)
12
5
PHI
8.5
+350
+4500
thirty first (T)
7
3
PIT
7.5
+850
+6500
seventh (T)
13
4
SF
10
+180
+1500
14th
10
6
SEA
6.5
+1100
+10000
seventh (T)
11
8
TB
11.5
-280
+750
twenty first (T)
9
6
TEN
9.5
+130
+2800
twelfth
11
7
WAS
7.5
+400
+6000
twenty fifth (T)
10
4
Key

Win Complete/ Division/Tremendous Bowl: These figures come from DraftKings Sportsbook

Power of Schedule: Calculated by summing opponents win totals then ranked from hardest (1st) to best (thirty first (T))

High quality Opponents: Opponents with a win complete of 8 or extra

Elite Opponents: Opponents with a win complete of 10 or extra

The Cleveland Browns are presently off the board, so I gave them a win complete of 9 as a way to calculate energy of schedule.

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