NFL betting breakdown: Week 1

Scott Kellen, SixthSenseSports.com, @SixthSenseNFL

Raiders at Chargers

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Chargers -3½, 52

Analysis: The Raiders’ big addition on offense is wide receiver Davante Adams. They added Chandler Jones, an outside rusher, to their defense to replace Yannick Nagoue. These changes have obscured the fact that the Raiders are entering this season with what I consider to be the worst offensive line in all of the NFL. The Chargers didn’t make many significant changes on offense. The secondary and run defense need to be improved. They also added Morgan Fox as a defensive end and Sebastian Joseph-Day as defensive tackle. Khalil Mack was an edge rusher. Cornerbacks Bryce Callahan (and J.C. Jackson) will be absent.

These numbers: In a trend favoring Los Angeles, Week 1 divisional teams that didn’t make the playoffs the previous season are 35-14 ATS vs. teams that did. … In the past two seasons, the Raiders have allowed an average of 32 points per game as road underdogs vs. above average offenses.

Pick:Raiders 26, Chargers 29

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Ravens at Jets

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Ravens -6½, 44

Analysis:Baltimore hopes to be healthy after last season’s injuries. It will be without Ronnie Stanley (left tackle) and Bishop Gorman products. After missing five games last year, Lamar Jackson is back with the Ravens. The Jets had an excellent draft and are able to return two of their defensive stars from last season, Lamarcus Joyner (Carl Lawson) and Lamarcus Joyner (Defensive). The Jets will have to win this game with Joe Flacco as quarterback and injuries to the offensive line.

These numbers:An 18-5 under run is available for Week 1 nondivisional road favorites. These include totals higher than 42 and -4. … The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in Week 1.

Pick: Ravens 23, Jets 16

Saints at Falcons

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Saints -5½, 43

Analysis: This Saints team is much better than last season’s. They are bringing back Jameis Winston, their QB who was 5-2 last year before being hurt. The receivers are much improved with Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Chris Olave returning from a 2-year injury. Saints defense is strong. Atlanta traded QB Matt Ryan to Marcus Mariota. I rate the quarterback change a 2½-point downgrade.

These numbers:Since 2009, the divisional home favorites are 20-5-1 ATS in Week 1. … The Saints have won and covered the past four meetings in Atlanta.

Pick:Saints 27, Falcons 19.

Patriots at Dolphins

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Dolphins -3½, 46½

Analysis:There has been much discussion about who will be the New England offensive coordinator. There are no excuses for Miami QB Tua tagovailoa. The Dolphins have upgraded the receiving area with Tyreek Hill, Cedrick Wilson, and upgraded the offensive lines with Terron Armstead (Connor Williams). Mike McDaniel, a new coach, comes from the 49ers to implement the Kyle Shanahan offense. It is quarterback-friendly.

These numbers: In a trend favoring Miami, Week 1 divisional teams that didn’t make the playoffs the previous season are 35-14 ATS vs. teams that did. … The Patriots have lost seven of their past nine meetings in Miami.

Pick:Dolphins 25, Patriots

Browns at Panthers

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Pick’em, 42

Analysis:Carolina’s quarterback is upgraded with Baker Mayfield, a former Cleveland QB. The Browns will continue to play with Jacoby Brissett, the Browns’ quarterback, until Deshaun Wilson returns. While Brissett’s play style is not the best, it suits him well when playing against below average teams. I rate these teams about even, but Cleveland’s offensive line and secondary are superior to Carolina’s.

These numbers: Matt Rhule, Panthers coach is 1-6 straight up. He is also ATS as a home favourite.

Pick:Browns 23, Panthers 21

Steelers at Bengals

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/total: Bengals -7, 44½

Analysis:Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh QB, retired. He was getting older but I still rated him about one point higher than Mitchell Trubisky, the new Steelers starting quarterback. After their Super Bowl run, the Bengals knew they needed to upgrade their offensive line and added center Ted Karras, right guard Alex Cappa and right tackle La’el Collins.

These numbers:As road underdogs, Pittsburgh allowed an average 34 ppg last year compared to above average offenses.

Pick: Bengals 27, Steelers 17

49ers at Bears

Time: 10 a.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: 49ers -6½, 40½

Analysis:San Francisco’s QB Trey Lance is on the field. He will be positioned behind a weak offensive line, with center Alex Mack and guard Laken Tomlinson absent. George Kittle, the Niners’ star tight end (groin), could miss this game. The Bears have a new coaching staff, and Justin Fields will be the quarterback.

These numbers: The Bears were 0-5 straight up and ATS as home underdogs last season, losing 33-22 to the Niners.

Pick:49ers 24, Bears 19

Eagles at Lions

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Eagles -5½, 48½

Analysis:The Eagles had one the most successful offseasons when it came to adding talent. This was highlighted by the acquisitions of wideout A.J. Brown. Detroit is able to resign two key members of its offensive line. The Lions also added No. 2nd overall pick Aidan Hutchinson as an edge rusher.

These numbers:Last season, the Lions were 6-2 ATS home underdogs. The Eagles lost 44-6. … Philadelphia went 9-1 last season vs. teams that finished with losing records, with seven wins by double digits.

Pick:Eagles 29, Lions 22

Colts at Texans

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Colts -7, 45½

Analysis:In Indianapolis, the Matt Ryan era starts. Shaquille Leonard is back for the Colts. Lovie Smith takes over as Houston’s coach and is building his defense, adding edge rusher Jerry Hughes and rookie cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. The Colts defeated the Texans twice last year, 31-0 in Houston, and 31-3 at home.

ByThe numbers:Since 2009, the divisional home underdogs in Week 1 are 20-5-1 ATS. … As road favorites against teams that finished .500 or worse, the Colts are 0-4 ATS vs. Jacksonville and 6-0 ATS vs. all other teams.

Pick:Colts 28, Texans 19.

Jaguars at Commanders

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Commanders -3, 44

Analysis: Urban Meyer is no more the coach and Jacksonville will be better. The Jaguars were also -20 in net turnover differential last year. In the NFL, teams have been much more successful in this category in the past. Washington added Carson Wentz as a quarterback to provide stability.

These numbers: According to a trend favoring Jacksonville: Week 1 road underdogs with fewer seven points and who have won fewer seven games in the previous season are 43-15-2 ATS. … Washington is 0n a 1-6 ATS skid as a home favorite. … The Jaguars are mired in a 17-game road losing streak.

Pick: Commanders 24, Jaguars 19

Cardinals at Chiefs

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Chiefs -6½, 53½

Analysis:The Patrick Mahomes era is over without Tyreek Hills. Arizona lost Christian Kirk, a wideout, and Chandler Jones, an edge rusher. They also added Marquise Brown, a receiver. The Cardinals will not have suspended star receiver DeAndre Holmes as they begin the season.

These numbers:The Chiefs have been road favorites in domes against Mahomes with an average of 33 ppg. … As home underdogs against above average offenses under coach Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals have allowed 31 ppg.

Pick: Chiefs 32, Cardinals 26,

Packers at Vikings

Time: 1:25 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/total: Packers -1; 46½

Analysis:Green Bay was dealt a huge blow when Davante Adams was traded to the Raiders. The Packers do get five injured players back, including left tackle David Bakhtiari (left) and cornerback Jaire Alexander (right). Minnesota replaced coach Mike Zimmer with former Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell, who should orchestrate a more efficient attack. The Vikings also upgraded their defense, adding edge rusher Za’Darius Smith and linebacker Jordan Hicks. After missing 10 games last year, edge rusher Danielle Hunter is back.

These numbers: Week 1 divisional home underdogs are currently on a 20-5-1 streak of cover.

Pick:Packers 28, Vikings 24

Giants at Titans

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/total: Titans -5½, 44

Analysis: The Giants bring in new coach Brian Daboll, formerly Buffalo’s offensive coordinator. Daboll will help QB Daniel Jones. New York can improve if it can stay healthy at the skill position. Tennessee will attempt to replace wideout A.J. Brown will be replaced by Robert Woods, who is recovering from an injury.

These numbers:Giants’ trend favors the Giants: Week 1 road underdogs who are less than seven points from winning fewer than seven games last season are 43-15-2 ATS.

Pick:Giants 19 and Titans 27

Cowboys at Buccaneers

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/total: Buccaneers -2½, 50½

Analysis: There’s been a lot of talk about Tampa Bay’s decimated offensive line. The problem is the interior of the unit, and Tom Brady struggles when teams put pressure on him up top. But the two cornerstones of the line, at left tackle and right tackle, are still around, and Tampa Bay added right guard Shaq Mason, Brady’s former teammate in New England. The Cowboys are facing more serious problems, such as their offensive line. Left tackle TyronSmith will be out for the majority of the season. Cedrick Wilson and Amari Cooper, wideouts, have been lost. Michael Gallup has been replaced. Edge rusher Randy Gregory has also been lost.

These numbers: The 12-4 ATS record for Week 1 is a good showing by prime-time home underdogs.

Pick: Buccaneers 30, Cowboys 23

Broncos at Seahawks

Time:Monday, ESPN at 5:15 p.m.

Line/total: Broncos -7, 44½

Analysis:Denver’s QB Russell Wilson assumes the role of Peyton Manning’s replacement. Seattle’s post-Wilson era begins with Geno Smith, QB. The Seahawks traded Noah Fant, a tight end for the Wilson trade, and attempted to upgrade their offensive lines with Charles Cross, a first round draft pick. Seattle’s defense suffered significant losses with the departures of linebacker Bobby Wagner and corner D.J. Reed.

These numbers:Week 1 Monday Night Home Underdogs of less than seven points are 17-5 ATS

Pick: Broncos 24, Seahawks 20

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