The Dallas Mavericks make a great team to wager on. Yes, I’m a biased fan, but they’re also right in that gambling sweet spot. There’s enough mystery around the team that they aren’t considered top-tier favorites in any major category (besides to win their division — more on this soon), but with Luka Doncic, they have enough talent to make a deep run as a sleeper.
Let’s take a look at team futures for the Mavericks and see what’s worth betting on.
All odds are courtesy the DraftKings Sportsbook
Southwest Division Winner: Mavs -230
This is the only category in which the Mavericks are heavily favored, and ohhhhh boy it’s a doozy.
The Southwest Division is home of the Dallas Mavericks (Memphis Grizzlies), New Orleans Pelicans (New Orleans Pelicans), San Antonio Spurs (San Antonio Spurs), and Houston Rockets (Houston Rockets). The Mavericks’ win feels obvious, right. I mean, that’s why you have to bet $230 on the Mavericks in order to win $100.
But it’s tougher than it looks.
We can cross off the Spurs and Rockets, but neither of these teams will be able to win this division. What about the Pelicans or Grizzlies? There’s a world in which the Pelicans could be world breakers if Zion Williamson stays healthy, Brandon Ingram plays at an All-Star level, and some of their youngsters step up. The Pels have been a dumpster fire recently and the Mavs are trending up, so I don’t see that happening, but it’s worth noting.
The Grizzlies are the team I’m worried about here. Ja Morant is already a star, but he’s poised to make a huge leap sooner rather than later. If he can stay healthy, and his supporting cast (specifically Jaren Jackson Jr.) can provide him with what he needs, it’s not unrealistic that they could win the Southwest Division, especially if the Mavericks are plagued by injuries, knock on wood.
Still, if the Mavs can avoid major injuries, it’s hard to believe they won’t wind up winning the division.
Advice: Place your bets with caution on the Mavs
Western Conference Winner: Mavs +1300
When it comes to analyzing the Mavs’ odds to win the Western Conference, it’s important to also look at the odds for other teams in the West. These are the odds:
The other teams (Wolves, Kings, Spurs, Thunder, Rockets) don’t even have a puncher’s chance of winning the West.
I’m not saying this from the perspective of a biased fan, even though that’s what I am, but I genuinely think the Mavs are the best bet out of this group. The Lakers +200 just doesn’t feel right. While they have the best team, they also have a lot old guys. I don’t like the return on investment at +200.
The Warriors, Suns, and Jazz all feel similar in real life, and the odds reflect that, but similar to the Lakers situation, I don’t like the return on investment. And if you’re betting the Clippers at +650, seek help. Kawhi Leonard might not be playing this season. They’re not winning the conference.
Dallas is undervalued at +1300 They have Luka Doncic, who is undoubtedly the best player at the conference, and Kristaps Porzingis, who seems happy and healthy. Jason Kidd is their biggest question mark. But if everything goes fine in that department, there’s no reason to think Luka can’t propel the Mavs to the NBA Finals.
This is my favorite future Mavs bet. I don’t understand why they’re not in the Warriors/Suns/Jazz/Clippers range from +550 to +650. 13/1 odds is a great deal.
Advice: Hammer the Mavs.
NBA Finals Winner: Mavs +2800
Do you think the Mavericks will win the title again? No. Will I place a bet at +2800? Yes. It all boils down to Luka Doncic.
+2800 is ridiculous for a team that boasts the best player of the NBA. I’m not campaigning for the Mavs to be title favorites by any means, but they should definitely be in the same value range as the Warriors, Jazz, Clippers, and Suns, who are +1100, +1500, +1700, and +1700, respectively.
It is important to consider how much luck is involved (a lot) when betting on NBA Finals title winners. That’s why I would recommend betting on the Mavs (who knows what will happen?), but I also wouldn’t bet a lot on them (who knows what will happen?.
Advice: Sprinkle some salt on the Mavs
Favorite Finals Matchup Bet: Bucks Vs. Mavs +0000
The Nets are the favorite to come out of the East, and that’s fair, but the odds for a Nets vs Mavericks Finals matchup are +2800, which is absolutely ludicrous. Sure, the Nets have the highest ceiling in the East, but with all of the question marks surrounding that team (and the Mavs), everything breaking in a way that would lead to a Nets vs Mavs matchup feels too unrealistic for the odds you’re getting.
Instead, take a look to the Bucks vs Mavericks Finals matchup @ +10000 (a $100 bet wins $10,000). I can’t believe the Bucks are getting disrespected at that level after winning the previous NBA Finals. My eyes are pretty clear that the East is a tossup between Nets and Bucks. There’s a world in which the Bucks come out of the gates with no pressure on their shoulders and never look back, sprinting to the Finals with ease. If that happens, and Luka takes Dallas on his shoulders then the payoff is amazing.
Advice: It’s unlikely to happen, but the payout makes it worth a sprinkle. Why not?