Betting tips for Monday Night Football — Broncos vs. Seahawks

Week 1 of the NFL’s NFL season ends on Monday night when the Seattle Seahawks host the Denver Broncos at Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington. After a thrilling Sunday of football action, we have another chance to wager on professional football if you so choose. What will the Monday night game look like for our analysts?

Analysts for betting Doug Kezirian, Joe FortenbaughAnd Anita Marks;Analysts for fantasy and sports betting Eric Moody Andre Snellings; ESPN Stats & Information Seth Walder, ESPN analyst Jason Fitz Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders shares his top plays.

Note: All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook, unless otherwise noted.

The storyline of this game revolves around the Seahawks trading franchise QB Russell Wilson from the Seahawks to the Broncos during the offseason. What do you think Wilson’s approach is to this game? Who do you like most in the game?

I have never been a fan of the idea that players perform better when they win more games than others. These are professionals. I believe they arrive at every game well-prepared and eager to win. The possibility that Wilson will come into the game feeling better because he wants the Seahawks to win is balanced by the possibility that he might be playing worse because of his excitement and inaccuracy due to poor mechanics. Although the Wilson trade story is great for pregame coverage, wagering should not be a part of it. (I don’t like wagering on this one, but I think this line is accurate.) — Schatz

Wilson was eventually constrained by Pete Carroll’s obsession with the run and his staff. Wilson found a way for him to thrive. He was 31st among Seahawks in total passing attempts (3124), but he ranked 8th in completions (1 956), 6th in passing yards (23,085) and 3rd in touchdowns (186) for the Seahawks offense. The Broncos coaching staff will allow Wilson to cook and prepare a meal when he returns to Seattle. Two bets that I like in this match are Wilson to score more than 1.5 passing touchdowns (-157) as well as KJ Hamler. “anytime touchdown” scorer (+220). I’d be shocked if Wilson isn’t used as a passer in red zone by the Broncos this season. In red zone touchdown rates, they have finished lower than 19th the last six seasons. Hamler, whether he is in the slot or out, poses a threat to the Seahawks secondary. — Moody

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Wilson doesn’t have any other obligations than to be himself. Russ isn’t under pressure, Geno Smith is, and Smith will have to replace the quarterback on the opposing sideline. We love drama so the idea of Carroll vs. Wilson makes for a great conversation point. But once the game begins, it is all about which overall roster is the best. The Broncos are clearly a better team from top to bottom. Anything less would be a surprise considering the expectations surrounding Russ and his Broncos. I expect both quarterbacks to play as we would expect. That means Geno will be great and Russ will be solid. — Fitz

Wilson should be willing to take whatever defense offers him. The Broncos have the tools to tailor their attack to the opponent’s needs. The Broncos have a solid set of receiving threats but also have two great running backs. Wilson will take the Broncos offense to the opposite direction, no matter what the Seahawks do. I don’t buy into the notion that Wilson will seek to hang a large number of points on the board simply because he’s facing his former team. Russell will lead the Broncos towards a great scoring output, regardless of whether the numbers come from him directly or not. — Snellings

Let Russ prepare! I expect him to succeed against a young Seahawks secondary. Tariq Woolen (Rookie CB Starter) and Coby Bryant (Rookie CB Starter) will be joining a unit that, along with Sidney Jones IV, allowed a 62% completion rate last season. This offense is too much for Seattle and Geno Smith will be trying hard to catch up all night. Denver, lay the points! — Marks

Wilson’s player props include 255.5 passing yards and 1.5 TDs (-1157), 22.5 completions and 12.5 running yards. Would you like to see any of these Monday nights?

Given my answer to the first question, I would like Wilson to score more than 1.5 touchdowns. Wilson should pass for at least 255.5 yards. He has averaged 245.6 yards per game since 2016. Wilson’s difficult relationship with the Seahawks front office and coaching staff means that anything less than 300 yards is considered disappointing. This is his chance at making a statement on a national level. Moody

The Seahawks were either last or 31st among the NFL’s passing yards allowed (280.4/game), passing attempts allowed (36.7/game) and passing completions allowed (26.1/game) last season. They had 1.4 passing touchdowns per game, which tied them for seventh. The Seahawks defense was 20th in rushing yards allowed per match and tied for 23rd with only 0.8 rushing scores per game. Wilson should go, I think. OverIn passing yards, completions, attempts and attempts. I’m not as confident passing touchdowns. The Seahawks were less aggressive against passing scores but stronger against rushing scores. — Snellings

Wilson’s addition has made the Broncos 16-1 to win Super Bowl (eighth-shortest odds), while they are just behind the Chiefs, Chargers, and +260 to win AFC West. What do you think of the Broncos’ chances of contending in this season?

The Broncos are a great team, just like all AFC West teams. However, Denver’s defense last year was a statistical disaster. This topic has been a big topic of conversation in the preseason, as I have discussed it on the Mina Kimes podcast and Lenny podcast. (ESPN shoutout!) Short version: The Broncos ranked 3rd in points allowed, 20th in yards per drives and 20th in DVOA. Their offense was very slow and they were very strong at both punting off and kicking off. They allowed very few points. This meant opponents had to go longer to score, and they were able to drive the ball less often. The Broncos have a new head coach and a better quarterback. I don’t think they will slow down. They will score more but their defense will be on the field longer and give up more points. Broncos fans believe they are adding Wilson as a top-five defensive player, but in reality they are just adding Wilson to an average defense. It could be better. While there is some talent and Randy Gregory is an add, I think the Broncos are too overrated for their defense. — Schatz

The Broncos are clearly contenders. There have been many instances in the past decade of veteran quarterbacks winning more than 10 games in their first season with a team. This includes Matthew Stafford (2021), and Tom Brady (2020). Stafford and Brady won Super Bowls together with their new teams. Wilson could follow a similar route. The Broncos team was built to win a championship. They will still have to compete in the AFC West with the Chiefs Raiders and Chargers. This will be difficult and could endanger their chances of winning a championship. Moody

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The Broncos have an impressive team, but there are many. “leap of faith”They needed to make predictions to get there. Russ must learn to work with a new offensive system, new receivers, and Jerry Jeudy must become the receiver I drafted. Nathaniel Hackett, the first-time head coach, and his young staff have to seamlessly transition into elite staff. The Broncos will need to win this division and a Super Bowl. I’m not going to be there, even though the talent is obvious. — Fitz

Although the Broncos have the talent and the potential to contend, I believe there are too many obstacles for them to have the eighth-shortest chance of winning the Super Bowl. The Broncos will be in the toughest division, and undoubtedly the toughest conference. Even if everything goes as planned, they would still struggle to make it to the playoffs or win the championship. I believe there are other teams with higher odds of winning the Super Bowl this season. I am therefore betting on the Broncos. The division is where I can see that all four teams have the same chance of winning, so the Broncos with the longest odds could be worth some value. However, I believe they have less than a one-in-4 chance of winning the division. Their odds are right within that range, so I don’t see value. Their odds of winning the division might actually be accurate. — Snellings

Is there anything else that grabs your attention from a betting perspective for our first MNF game?

Some very talented men have played over 43. While it is a low total, it is still a good number. However, I would not be happy to trade points for Seattle. But I can also see GenoSmith making some poor turnovers and scoring easy points to Denver. Or maybe they agree with Aaron and think Denver’s defense average. I would not touch either the total nor the side. Wilson is as robotic and predictable as they come, but I can imagine that even a guy who has played at Super Bowls might be a bit more human. “off”Or out of his element. I expect Seattle to mess this game up and I would grab points if Drew Lock was starting. Remember that this is Nathaniel Hackett’s first game. Do you want to score a touchdown on the road, or just a point? As bad as Smith or Seattle may seem, Pittsburgh had to use OT to beat them last season and the Saints won only by a field goal. — Kezirian

Courtland Sutton has more than 55.5 receiving yards. Wilson’s favorite receiver in pressure situations, Courtland Sutton has had a great relationship with him this offseason. Sutton averaged 53.2 receiving yards per week over his career with suboptimal quarterback play. He could do great things with Wilson. Sutton could easily beat a Seahawks pass defense that ranked 31st last season. — Moody

I chose Denver at (-6.5), because I believe the market will move to (-7) by kickoff. And, frankly speaking, I want to get a piece of the action on this game without getting the worst number. This game will be decided in part by the Broncos’ defense, which ranked second in scoring and 10th for opponent yards per play last year, despite Bradley Chubb being out of action for 10 games. I don’t think Geno Smith and his team can sustain enough consistent drives to keep the game within a touchdown. — Fortenbaugh

Geno Smith will find it difficult to score points against the Broncos front seven and Pat Surtain II. Although I love Seattle’s wide receivers I don’t trust Smith in this situation. I will take the Seahawks to under-18.5 total points. That is part of the reason why I like the (6.5) line for Denver. — Fitz

According to reports, Wilson has made Sutton his favorite target. This means that the Broncos will have to face an inexperienced secondary. Sutton had a 12.2% red zone share last season (compared to Jeudy’s 5%). Sutton wins over 4.5 receptions (-110) or anytime TD (+135). Javonte Williams is my favorite over 57.5 rushing yardage (-120). Williams had 31 broken tackles last year, which was second in the NFL. He’s extremely solid and should get the lion’s part of the Broncos’ backfield carries (say, a 65-35 split). Seattle’s defense will be without Bobby Wagner (now with Los Angeles Rams), Carlos Dunlap (now at the Kansas City Chiefs), and RasheemGreen (now at the Houston Texans). Melvin Gordon III is available for a anytime touchdown (+160). Gordon has averaged 9 TD per seasons over his entire career. We might call him a “touchdown vulture”2022? We’ll soon find out. — Marks

Even looking at other prop lines, I believe there are clues that Sutton is under 4.5 receptions (123) which I think is a bit high. Wilson’s pass attempts line is 33.5. Sutton’s last season’s target share was 19% and he caught 58.6%. If Wilson’s prop is accurate, and Sutton’s numbers for last year are consistent, that would mean just 3.8 receptions. Wilson’s accuracy is extraordinary and he will complete passes at an even higher rate. Even if we increase Sutton’s catch rate from 65% to 4.2 receptions, that still leaves us with 4.2 receptions. Sutton may take on a higher target percentage this year, but that’s not something I believe we can afford to do. — Walder

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